Moody's Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryFinancial Exchanges & Data Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $519.94median of 6 methods · middle span $380-$561computed 26 Aug 2026 · filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $474.95Price as of 11 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $82.3B Enterprise Value $87.7B Shares Outstanding 175.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Moody's entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 15%, adjusted diluted EPS increased 31%, Moody's Analytics ARR grew nearly 9%, and rated issuance increased 33%. The counterweight is valuation: the shares closed at $514.95 on August 28, near their $546.88 52-week high. The resulting risk/reward supports a Hold pending either a more attractive entry price or evidence that durable double-digit growth can extend beyond the issuance upswing. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$505.00 Mean target$560.48 High · most bullish analyst$610.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 29 Jul 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $420.0019% Rated issuance contracts as financing activity normalizes, while Moody's Analytics ARR growth falls below 7%. Weaker transaction revenue and reduced operating leverage would expose the downside associated with a share price that was already near its 52-week high at the research date. Base CaseCentral scenario $560.4856% Matches the consensus meanFull-year revenue grows at management's high-single-digit objective, Moody's Analytics sustains high-single-digit ARR growth, and ratings activity moderates after an unusually strong first half without contracting. Bull CaseUpside scenario $625.0025% Sustained AI, infrastructure, refinancing and private-credit funding keeps rated issuance elevated while Moody's Analytics ARR accelerates into double digits. Continued operating leverage and execution against the raised 2026 adjusted-EPS range support a materially higher share price. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |