Mondelez International, Inc. Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPackaged Foods & Meats Beta (adjusted)0.59 Intrinsic Value $61.76median of 6 methods · middle span $37-$63computed 26 Aug 2026 · filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $62.44Price as of 11 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $80.2B Enterprise Value $94B Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Mondelēz entered the second half of 2026 with improving operating momentum: second-quarter organic net revenue grew 2.2%, volume/mix turned positive at 0.7%, and management reported improving share trends. That improvement follows a difficult 2025 in which unprecedented cocoa-cost pressure contributed to a 14.6% constant-currency decline in adjusted EPS and volume/mix fell 3.7%. The evidence therefore supports a balanced stance: global brands, emerging-market strength, cash generation and a rising dividend provide durable advantages, but the durability of volume recovery and the timing of margin normalization remain unresolved. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$55.00 Mean target$69.13 High · most bullish analyst$77.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 29 Aug 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $55.0020% Pricing elasticity causes renewed volume pressure, Europe improvement stalls, and cocoa or other input costs delay margin recovery, leaving adjusted earnings under continued pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $69.1355% Matches the consensus meanOrganic growth remains positive but moderate, volume recovery continues unevenly, and profitability improves gradually as execution and cost actions offset continuing input-cost pressure. Bull CaseUpside scenario $77.0025% Positive volume/mix broadens across regions, Europe share trends continue improving, brand investment supports demand, and stabilizing cocoa costs enable a stronger earnings recovery. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |