Luxfer Holdings PLC Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Machinery and Supplies and Components Beta (adjusted)1.09 Intrinsic Value $8.82median of 6 methods · middle span $5-$12based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $17.28Price as of 23 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 49% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $466.4M Enterprise Value $513.2M Shares Outstanding 27.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Luxfer combines specialized materials technology and high-pressure containment products with positions in safety-critical, regulated niches. Elektron supplied the stronger 2025 performance, with $196.4 million of revenue, 11.6% growth and an 18.8% adjusted EBITDA margin, while Gas Cylinders recorded $174.8 million, a 6.2% decline and an 8.6% margin. For the trailing period ended 28 Jun 2026, company revenue was $360.9 million, net income was $8.0 million and free cash flow was $16.8 million. The balance sheet held $11.5 million of cash against $58.3 million of debt. Operational consolidation and expected annual savings of approximately $6.0 million provide a defined efficiency path, but execution, customer concentration, raw-material volatility and weak cylinder markets remain material constraints. A neutral view is warranted until the margin gains hold through a full cycle; stronger Gas Cylinders demand, sustained cash generation and debt reduction would make the view constructive, while margin reversal or weaker cash conversion would make it cautious. Sources: 0001096056-26-000015#Business; 0001096056-26-000015#Management’s Discussion and Analysis; 0001096056-26-000015#Segment Information; 0001437749-26-024682#Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$19.00 Mean target$20.50 High · most bullish analyst$22.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A cautious view is warranted by uneven segment performance, modest consolidated profitability and execution risk around manufacturing consolidation. Gas Cylinders recorded a 6.2% revenue decline in 2025 and an 8.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, materially below Elektron’s 18.8% margin. For the trailing period ended 28 Jun 2026, net margin was 2.2% and free cash flow of $16.8 million remained below the $26.2 million three-year median. The business also faces raw-material and energy volatility, emerging-market timing risk and customer concentration, particularly within Gas Cylinders. The view would become neutral if cylinder demand stabilizes, consolidation proceeds without material disruption, margins improve across both segments and free cash flow returns toward its three-year median while debt declines. Sources: 0001096056-26-000015#Risk Factors; 0001096056-26-000015#Segment Information; 0001437749-26-024682#Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements Base CaseCentral scenario A neutral view is warranted until the margin gains hold through a full cycle. Elektron’s 2025 revenue of $196.4 million, 11.6% growth and 18.8% adjusted EBITDA margin provide the main operating support, while Gas Cylinders remains softer at $174.8 million of revenue, a 6.2% decline and an 8.6% margin. For the trailing period ended 28 Jun 2026, Luxfer produced $16.8 million of free cash flow and held $222.7 million of shareholders’ equity, but total debt stood at $58.3 million. Sustained cylinder-market stabilization, realization of approximately $6.0 million in annual efficiency savings and cash generation nearer the $26.2 million three-year median would make the view constructive; margin reversal or additional debt expansion would make it cautious. Sources: 0001096056-26-000015#Management’s Discussion and Analysis; 0001096056-26-000015#Segment Information; 0001437749-26-024682#Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements Bull CaseUpside scenario Luxfer's bull case is driven by its strategic transition toward higher-value, specialized products in high-barrier niche markets (such as aerospace, defense, space exploration, and semiconductor applications) where materials science is a key differentiator. This shift, combined with the execution of the Luxfer Business System and footprint optimization initiatives (such as the Riverside consolidation and Saxonburg Center of Excellence), is expanding margins and positioning the company for a projected step-up in earnings and sustained long-term profitable growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |