Loop Industries Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySpecialty Chemicals Beta (adjusted)1.34 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $0.24Price as of 23 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $11.7M Enterprise Value $13.6M Shares Outstanding 48.7M diluted Next Earnings Date13 Jan 2027 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Loop remains a pre-commercial specialty-chemicals technology company whose outcome depends on converting patented PET depolymerization into operating plants, recurring royalties and joint-venture profit. The capital-light licensing and equal-partner model, Nike offtake relationship, India engineering work and planned German platform provide external validation and potential routes to scale. Current economics remain weak: fiscal 2026 revenue was $0.5 million, gross margin was 25.9%, net loss was $12.2 million and free cash flow in the latest reported period was negative $8.3 million. At 31 May 2026, cash was $1.1 million against $3.0 million of debt, and shareholders' equity was negative $12.0 million. A neutral view is warranted until financing is secured, commercial facilities move from engineering into operation, recurring revenue broadens beyond project milestones, and margin gains hold through a full cycle. A constructive view would require credible funding and on-time commissioning; further delays, dilution, liquidity pressure or failure to scale would support a cautious view. Sources: 0001437749-26-018576#income_statement_metrics; 0001437749-26-023542#cash_flow_metrics; 0001437749-26-023542#balance_sheet_metrics; 0001437749-26-023542#narrative_facts.business_analysis This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.00 Mean target$4.55 High · most bullish analyst$6.10 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A cautious view is warranted because Loop remains pre-commercial, reported a $12.2 million fiscal 2026 net loss and had negative $12.0 million of shareholders' equity at 31 May 2026. Commercial success depends on financing, constructing and operating facilities that have not yet reached production. Delays, cost pressure, weak project-debt availability or failure to scale the process could postpone royalties and joint-venture profit while operating cash needs continue. The substantial doubt about going concern, ongoing SEC investigation and shareholder litigation add financing, legal and reputational uncertainty. This view would move toward neutral if liquidity improves, project funding closes and independently demonstrated construction and operating milestones reduce commercialization risk. Sources: 0001437749-26-018576#income_statement_metrics; 0001437749-26-023542#balance_sheet_metrics; 0001437749-26-023542#narrative_facts.risk_assessment; 0001437749-26-023542#narrative_facts.regulatory_and_legal Base CaseCentral scenario A neutral view is warranted while Loop progresses from engineering and licensing milestones toward commercial production. In the base case, partner-backed projects continue through engineering, permitting and financing, providing intermittent service revenue without yet establishing durable royalties or joint-venture profit. The capital-light structure limits Loop's direct construction burden, but liquidity remains constrained by continuing losses and negative free cash flow. The view would become constructive if committed financing and construction milestones establish a credible route to commissioning and recurring revenue, while margin gains hold through a full cycle. It would become cautious if funding gaps, permitting delays or cash consumption materially slow the projects. Sources: 0001437749-26-018576#segment_performance; 0001437749-26-023542#cash_flow_metrics; 0001437749-26-023542#narrative_facts.risk_assessment Bull CaseUpside scenario Loop Industries' bull case centers on the commercialization of its proprietary depolymerization technology through strategic joint ventures. Key drivers include the Infinite Loop India JV, which recently secured a multi-year offtake Letter of Intent (LOI) with a major global apparel brand for up to 15,000 metric tons of PET fiber-grade resin annually, and the Infinite Loop Europe JV with Reed Societe Generale Group, which has selected BASF Industriepark Lausitz in Schwarzheide, Germany, for its first facility. Additionally, the company has reduced the expected initial capital expenditure for its India facility to $165M-$170M (down from $190M) and secured a deepened financial commitment from institutional shareholder Global Value Investment Corporation (GVIC), which intends to increase its ownership stake to at least 10%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |