Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.37 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.00Price as of 23 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $252.9M Enterprise Value $218M Shares Outstanding 264.4M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Lineage is a clinical-stage cell therapy developer whose business model combines partner-funded development, out-licensing and internal manufacturing capabilities. The central case rests on OpRegen’s Phase 2a progress with Roche and Genentech, supported by the broader AlloSCOPE platform and additional spinal cord, hearing and vision programs. Financially, 2025 revenue reached $14.6 million and gross margin was 99.0%, but the company recorded a $63.5 million net loss. At 30 Jun 2026, cash and equivalents were $37.4 million versus $2.4 million of debt, while trailing free cash flow was negative $24.4 million. This leaves clinical milestones, partner payments and financing access as central variables. A neutral view is warranted until clinical advancement and collaboration income translate into more durable operating economics; that reading would change if development progress reduces clinical uncertainty and cash consumption, or if trial setbacks, manufacturing delays or weaker funding access materially impair the pipeline. Sources: 0001193125-26-093992#Business; 0001193125-26-093992#Financial Statements; 0001193125-26-338064#Financial Statements; 0001193125-26-338064#Management Discussion and Analysis This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.00 Mean target$5.50 High · most bullish analyst$9.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.00 The bear case centers on clinical setbacks, regulatory delays, manufacturing difficulties or deterioration in key collaboration relationships. Novel cell therapies have substantial development and scale-up risk, and Lineage has no commercial product revenue to offset those uncertainties. Trailing free cash flow was negative $24.4 million at 30 Jun 2026, while the accumulated deficit was $470.3 million. Continued cash consumption could therefore increase reliance on partner milestones or external financing. A cautious view is warranted while clinical attrition and funding dependence remain material; that reading would change if programs produce reproducible clinical evidence, manufacturing milestones remain on schedule and collaboration receipts extend operating capacity. Sources: 0001193125-26-093992#Risk Factors; 0001193125-26-338064#Financial Statements; 0001193125-26-338064#Management Discussion and Analysis Base CaseCentral scenario $5.50 Matches the consensus meanThe base case is continued advancement of OpRegen under Roche and Genentech, measured progress for OPC1 and selective development of the earlier pipeline. Collaboration revenue helps fund operations, but its timing remains variable and ongoing research spending keeps cash flow negative. The balance sheet carried $37.4 million of cash and equivalents and $2.4 million of debt at 30 Jun 2026, providing financial capacity but not removing future funding dependence. A neutral view is warranted until clinical execution and collaboration income support more durable operating economics; that reading would change if development milestones reduce uncertainty and cash consumption, or if delays increase funding needs. Sources: 0001193125-26-093992#Business; 0001193125-26-338064#Financial Statements; 0001193125-26-338064#Management Discussion and Analysis Bull CaseUpside scenario $9.00 The bull case rests on successful OpRegen development with Roche and Genentech validating Lineage’s cell therapy approach and strengthening the potential of the wider AlloSCOPE platform. Progress by OPC1 and earlier programs could demonstrate that the manufacturing and differentiation capabilities apply across multiple therapeutic areas. The partner-funded model can provide development resources without requiring Lineage to build a full commercial organization for every program. A constructive view is warranted if clinical evidence, manufacturing execution and partnership milestones reinforce one another; that reading would change if efficacy proves inconsistent, safety concerns emerge, development schedules slip or collaborators reduce their commitment. Sources: 0001193125-26-093992#Business; 0001193125-26-093992#Risk Factors; 0001193125-26-338064#Management Discussion and Analysis Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |