LanzaTech Global Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEnvironmental & Facilities Services Beta (adjusted)1.22 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $4.81Price as of 23 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $63M Enterprise Value $27.2M Shares Outstanding 13.1M diluted Moat Rating None All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary LanzaTech has established commercial validation for a differentiated gas-fermentation platform, with six operating facilities, more than 60.0 million gallons of cumulative ethanol production and $48.1 million of remaining performance obligations at 31 Mar 2026. Engineering services are providing momentum, and Q1 2026 gross margin reached 31.0%. However, licensing and contract research contracted, while trailing EBITDA and free cash flow through 30 Jun 2026 were negative $31.6 million and negative $33.8 million, respectively. The filing also carried substantial going-concern doubt, although private placements raised $30.0 million in gross proceeds. A neutral view is warranted until margin gains hold through a full cycle and project deployments generate repeatable royalties with lower cash use. The view would become constructive with sustained licensing growth and self-funded execution, or cautious if project delays and financing dependence persist. Sources: 0001628280-26-056933#Business; 0001628280-26-056933#Liquidity; 0001628280-26-022505#Financial Statements; 0001628280-26-056933#Financial Statements; 0001628280-26-056933#Segment Information This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$15.00 Mean target$15.00 High · most bullish analyst$15.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.19 A cautious view is warranted because commercialization depends on customers financing and constructing complex facilities while LanzaTech continues to consume cash. Trailing EBITDA was negative $31.6 million and free cash flow was negative $33.8 million through 30 Jun 2026, and the filing carried substantial going-concern doubt despite $30.0 million of gross private-placement proceeds. Weakness in licensing and contract research adds execution pressure. The view would improve if project milestones convert into recurring royalties, gross-margin progress persists and operating cash use declines without repeated financing. Sources: 0001628280-26-056933#Liquidity; 0001628280-26-022505#Financial Statements; 0001628280-26-056933#Financial Statements; 0001628280-26-056933#Segment Information Base CaseCentral scenario $14.00 A neutral view is warranted until the margin gains hold through a full cycle and commercial deployments begin producing repeatable royalty revenue. The base case balances a differentiated gas-fermentation platform, six operating commercial facilities and $48.1 million of remaining performance obligations at 31 Mar 2026 against trailing negative EBITDA of $31.6 million and negative free cash flow of $33.8 million through 30 Jun 2026. The view would become constructive if licensing recovers, project cohorts advance on schedule and cash use moderates; it would become cautious if deployment delays renew dependence on external financing. Sources: 0001628280-26-056933#Business; 0001628280-26-022505#Financial Statements; 0001628280-26-056933#Financial Statements Bull CaseUpside scenario $15.00 A constructive view is warranted if LanzaTech converts its commercial footprint and intellectual property into a growing stream of licensing, royalty and higher-value product revenue. Six operating facilities, more than 60.0 million gallons of cumulative ethanol production and $48.1 million of remaining performance obligations at 31 Mar 2026 provide evidence of market adoption. Engineering and other services revenue of $6.4 million, with 255.6% growth, shows current project activity. The view would weaken if financed deployments stall, licensing remains subdued or improved gross margins fail to translate into lower cash consumption. Sources: 0001628280-26-056933#Business; 0001628280-26-056933#Segment Information Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |