Home Depot Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Cyclical IndustryHome Improvement Retail Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $324.64median of 6 methods · middle span $320-$327computed 26 Aug 2026 · filings through 3 May 2026 Market Price $308.74Price as of 11 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $308B Enterprise Value $355.8B Shares Outstanding 997M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Home Depot's fiscal 2026 second-quarter results showed improving comparable sales, positive average-ticket growth, and year-over-year diluted EPS growth, while management reaffirmed full-year guidance. However, comparable customer transactions remained negative, indicating that ticket growth continued to carry more of the comparable-sales improvement than customer traffic. A Hold recommendation balances the better-than-expected quarter and reaffirmed outlook against still-soft transaction demand and management-identified uncertainty involving input costs, tariffs, housing conditions, and acquisition integration. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$310.00 Mean target$374.06 High · most bullish analyst$430.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $310.0020% Comparable sales fall below management's guidance floor as transaction weakness deepens, while fuel, energy, product-input, tariff, or integration pressures push operating margin below 12.4%. This combination would weaken the earnings outlook despite nominal ticket growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $374.0655% Matches the consensus meanComparable sales remain within the approximately 0% to 2.0% fiscal 2026 range, operating margin finishes within the approximately 12.4% to 12.6% range, and diluted EPS growth remains within the approximately 0% to 4.0% range. Average-ticket growth partly offsets subdued transactions. Bull CaseUpside scenario $430.0025% Comparable sales move toward or above the upper end of fiscal 2026 guidance, customer transactions turn positive, and operating margin remains at or above the guided range. Successful execution across stores, supply chain, technology, and acquired professional-customer capabilities would support stronger earnings durability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |