Global Water Resources Inc Dossier
|
SectorUtilities IndustryWater Utilities Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $4.71median of 6 methods · middle span $3-$11based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $7.93Price as of 23 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $228.3M Enterprise Value $358.7M Shares Outstanding 29.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Global Water combines essential regulated utility services with exclusive territories in growing Arizona corridors and an integrated water, wastewater and recycled-water model. The latest reported period generated $60.1 million of revenue, $3.1 million of net income and a 5.2% net margin. However, capital expenditure of $44.8 million contributed to negative free cash flow of $24.3 million. At 30 Jun 2026, cash was $1.5 million, total debt was $131.8 million and the current ratio was 0.76, leaving financing and regulatory recovery central to execution. The GW-Santa Cruz settlement supports the rate-recovery process, but the withdrawn GW-Palo Verde proceeding and pending Maricopa contamination litigation add uncertainty. A neutral view is warranted until operating margin and cash generation improve and persist through a full cycle. It would become constructive with timely rate recovery and stronger internally funded investment, or cautious if leverage and liquidity pressures intensify. Sources: 0001628280-26-014659#Financial Statements; 0001628280-26-056446#Financial Statements; narrative_facts#business_analysis.business_model; narrative_facts#business_analysis.regulatory_and_legal This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.10 Mean target$9.80 High · most bullish analyst$12.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case centers on delayed regulatory recovery, high infrastructure requirements, geographic concentration and constrained liquidity. Capital expenditure of $44.8 million accompanied negative free cash flow of $24.3 million in the latest reported period. At 30 Jun 2026, cash and equivalents were $1.5 million, total debt was $131.8 million and the current ratio was 0.76. Water scarcity, rising operating costs, an unfavorable rate outcome or additional operational problems could increase financing pressure. The pending Maricopa contamination litigation adds legal and reputational uncertainty. A cautious view is warranted while investment needs materially exceed internally generated cash and regulatory timing remains uncertain. It would change to neutral if approved rates improve cash recovery, liquidity strengthens and capital spending becomes more closely aligned with operating cash generation. Sources: 0001628280-26-014659#Financial Statements; 0001628280-26-056446#Financial Statements; narrative_facts#business_analysis.risk_assessment; narrative_facts#business_analysis.regulatory_and_legal Base CaseCentral scenario The base case rests on a regulated utility model with exclusive Arizona service territories, customer expansion in regional growth corridors and eventual recovery of prudent infrastructure investment through approved tariffs. Revenue of $60.1 million and net income of $3.1 million in the latest reported period show positive earnings, but negative free cash flow of $24.3 million and total debt of $131.8 million demonstrate the funding burden. A neutral view is warranted until operating margin and cash generation improve and persist through a full cycle. It would become constructive if rate recovery supports stronger internally generated cash without a comparable increase in debt, or cautious if capital requirements continue to outpace cash generation while liquidity tightens. Sources: 0001628280-26-014659#Financial Statements; 0001628280-26-056446#Financial Statements; narrative_facts#business_analysis.business_model; narrative_facts#business_analysis.regulatory_and_legal Bull CaseUpside scenario Rapid organic customer connection growth driven by population expansion and industrial boom in Arizona, combined with a programmatic utility consolidation strategy and rate case recoveries. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |