Global Self Storage Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustrySelf-Storage REITs Beta (adjusted)0.35 Intrinsic Value $4.52median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $4.88Price as of 23 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $55.7M Enterprise Value $64M Shares Outstanding 11.3M diluted Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Global Self Storage combines recurring month-to-month rental income with high tenant retention, proprietary pricing tools and a focus on secondary and tertiary US markets. Same-store occupancy was 93.1% at 31 Mar 2026 and average tenant stay was approximately 3.6 years, supporting revenue stability despite short lease terms. In the latest reported period, FFO of $4.0 million, AFFO of $4.4 million and same-store NOI of $7.8 million showed positive property-level economics. At 30 Jun 2026, $7.5 million of cash and $2.3 million of short-term investments partly offset $15.7 million of debt, leaving $5.9 million of net debt. The main counterweights are rental-rate pressure, cost inflation, local supply and financing volatility. The site's reading is neutral until occupancy and NOI resilience hold through a full cycle. It would become constructive if occupancy, rates and NOI advance together without materially higher leverage, and cautious if occupancy falls, costs compress NOI or refinancing expense rises. Sources: 0001193125-26-124051#Business; 0001193125-26-124051#Management's Discussion and Analysis; 0001193125-26-340205#Financial Statements; 0001193125-26-340205#Management's Discussion and Analysis This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.00 Mean target$6.25 High · most bullish analyst$6.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case is that month-to-month leases, softer move-in rates and new local supply weaken pricing or occupancy while labor, utility and professional costs rise. Debt of $15.7 million at 30 Jun 2026 creates sensitivity to financing conditions, and interest expense was $0.8 million for the annual period ended 30 Jun 2026. The company also faces execution risk from property conversions, acquisitions and restrictive zoning. This case supports a cautious view if occupancy declines and expense growth compresses same-store NOI; it would return to neutral if occupancy stabilizes, tenant duration remains firm and financing costs stay controlled. Sources: 0001193125-26-124051#Risk Factors; 0001193125-26-340205#Financial Statements; 0001193125-26-340205#Management's Discussion and Analysis Base CaseCentral scenario The base case rests on stable occupancy, long tenant stays and continued use of pricing tools to support same-store NOI. Occupancy of 93.1% and average tenant duration of approximately 3.6 years at 31 Mar 2026 indicate a durable customer base, while latest-reported FFO of $4.0 million and AFFO of $4.4 million show positive REIT cash earnings. Cash and short-term investments totaled $7.5 million and $2.3 million, respectively, at 30 Jun 2026, partly offsetting $15.7 million of debt. The base case supports a neutral view until NOI and margin resilience hold through a full cycle; it would become constructive if rate growth and occupancy advance together without materially higher leverage, or cautious if financing costs or operating expenses erode NOI. Sources: 0001193125-26-124051#Management's Discussion and Analysis; 0001193125-26-340205#Management's Discussion and Analysis; 0001193125-26-340205#Balance Sheets Bull CaseUpside scenario A contracting national self-storage supply pipeline combined with stable demand in secondary markets will drive occupancy and rental rate recovery, allowing SELF to comfortably cover its high dividend yield. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |