Genie Energy Ltd Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryElectric Utilities Beta (adjusted)0.46 Intrinsic Value $9.65median of 5 methods · middle span $8-$14based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $16.71Price as of 23 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $439.8M Enterprise Value $261.8M Shares Outstanding 26.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend22 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Genie Energy combines a recurring retail energy operation with renewables development, solar operations and energy advisory. In the latest reported 12-month period ended 30 Jun 2026, revenue was $502.4 million, net income was $25.7 million and free cash flow was $15.7 million. Gross margin was 25.4% and net margin was 5.1%, showing that scale did not fully insulate earnings from wholesale cost pressure. The balance sheet provides resilience, with $184.8 million of cash and equivalents, $6.8 million of total debt and $261.6 million of equity at 30 Jun 2026. The main counterweights are retail churn, commodity volatility, renewables execution and financial-reporting remediation after restatement work and an NYSE compliance notice. A neutral view is warranted until margin gains hold through a full cycle. The view would turn constructive if customer retention stabilizes, solar assets generate durable cash and reporting controls are remediated; it would turn cautious if margin compression or compliance delays persist. Sources: 0001437749-25-033534#Financial Statements; 0001437749-26-014294#Financial Statements; 0001437749-26-017292#Risk Factors; 0001437749-26-026209#Financial Statements; 0001437749-26-026209#Controls and Procedures This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$16.00 Mean target$16.00 High · most bullish analyst$16.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A cautious view is warranted while wholesale commodity volatility, customer churn and reporting-control weaknesses remain unresolved. Retail profitability can compress when procurement costs rise faster than customer rates, and low switching costs require sustained acquisition and retention spending. The 2025 gross margin contracted by roughly 8.0 percentage points to 24.8%, while diluted EPS declined 31.3% year over year. The renewables pivot adds execution risk because advanced projects must be completed and converted into dependable operating cash flows. Restatement work and the NYSE non-compliance notice add governance and listing uncertainty. The view would return to neutral if margins stabilize through changing commodity conditions, customer retention improves, solar execution meets operating objectives and the delayed filing and control remediation are completed. Sources: 0001437749-26-014294#Controls and Procedures; 0001437749-26-017292#Risk Factors; 0001437749-26-026209#Management's Discussion and Analysis Base CaseCentral scenario A neutral view is warranted until margin gains hold through a full cycle. The base case rests on the retail energy operation continuing to produce recurring revenue and positive cash flow while management limits commodity-cost exposure and funds a measured transition toward operating solar assets. Revenue of $502.4 million and free cash flow of $15.7 million in the latest reported 12-month period show an established operating base, while $184.8 million of cash and equivalents against $6.8 million of total debt provides financial flexibility. The view would turn constructive if retail retention stabilizes, procurement and pricing restore durable margins, solar projects begin contributing recurring cash and financial-reporting weaknesses are remediated. It would turn cautious if margin pressure, customer contraction or filing delays persist. Sources: 0001437749-26-014294#Management's Discussion and Analysis; 0001437749-26-017292#Risk Factors; 0001437749-26-026209#Financial Statements; 0001437749-26-026209#Controls and Procedures Bull CaseUpside scenario Genie Energy's bull case centers on its exceptionally strong, debt-free balance sheet with substantial cash reserves (approximately $185.9 million to $211.4 million, representing nearly half of its market capitalization) which provides a strong valuation floor and downside protection. Furthermore, the core retail energy segment (GRE) continues to demonstrate robust cash generation and customer acquisition, while long-term upside is supported by margin recovery from normalized wholesale pricing and strategic expansion into distributed solar and advisory services. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |