Fidus Investment Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Fidus Investment Corp

FDUSNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.78

Intrinsic Value $17.38median of 4 methods · middle span $16-$19based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $18.56Price as of 23 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $738.1M

Enterprise Value $1.4B

Shares Outstanding 38.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Fidus combines recurring income from lower middle-market debt with potential gains from equity and warrant positions. Total investment income rose 30.2% to $47.5 million for the quarter ended 30 Jun 2026, but diluted EPS of $0.32 declined 10.3% year over year, indicating that stronger income did not produce matching per-share growth. Net asset value was $19.55 per share at 31 Mar 2026, while long-term debt reached $739.8 million at 30 Jun 2026. A neutral view is warranted while portfolio yield and origination strength are balanced by credit-cycle exposure, rate sensitivity and meaningful leverage. The view would become constructive if investment-income growth, net asset value and credit quality hold through a full cycle. It would become cautious if non-accruals rise, portfolio values weaken or funding costs absorb a larger share of recurring income. Sources: 0001193125-26-337982#FinancialStatements; 0001193125-26-211915#InvestmentPortfolio; 0001193125-26-337982#RiskFactors

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$19.50

Mean target$21.50

High · most bullish analyst$22.50

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$19.50

A cautious view is warranted if weaker lower middle-market borrowers experience repayment stress, portfolio valuations fall or lower rates compress returns on variable-rate assets. Long-term debt of $739.8 million at 30 Jun 2026 adds sensitivity to funding costs and asset performance, while the obligation to distribute taxable income limits retained capital. The view would return to neutral if credit quality stabilizes, net asset value remains resilient and recurring investment income continues to cover portfolio and financing costs through weaker conditions. Sources: 0001193125-26-337982#FinancialStatements; 0001193125-26-337982#RiskFactors

Base CaseCentral scenario

$21.50

Matches the consensus mean

A neutral view is warranted while rising investment income is balanced by softer quarterly diluted EPS and meaningful leverage. The portfolio’s focus on current-income debt, supplemented by equity positions, supports recurring earnings and potential realized gains, while lower middle-market credit exposure raises sensitivity to an economic slowdown. The view would become constructive if investment-income growth, net asset value and credit quality hold through a full cycle, or cautious if non-accruals rise and recurring earnings weaken. Sources: 0001193125-26-337982#FinancialStatements; 0001193125-26-337982#RiskFactors

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$22.50

A constructive view is warranted if disciplined origination sustains investment-income growth while portfolio credit quality and net asset value remain stable. Total investment income increased 30.2% to $47.5 million for the quarter ended 30 Jun 2026, and the debt portfolio’s 12.5% weighted average yield at 31 Mar 2026 supported current income. Equity holdings could add realized gains beyond interest income. The view would return to neutral if income growth moderates, credit losses rise or leverage increases without corresponding growth in durable earnings. Sources: 0001193125-26-337982#FinancialStatements; 0001193125-26-211915#InvestmentPortfolio

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong credit quality with non-accruals representing less than 1% of the portfolio on both a fair value and cost basis as of Q1 2026.
Attractive dividend profile consisting of a stable $0.43 base dividend and consistent supplemental dividends (totaling $0.62 for Q2 2026).
Substantial spillover taxable income of approximately $43.4 million ($1.14 per share) as of March 31, 2026, providing a strong cushion to support future dividend distributions.
Significant equity co-investment exposure which provides unique NAV upside and capital appreciation potential relative to pure-play debt BDCs.

Key Investment Risks

Interest rate sensitivity, with 72.5% of the debt portfolio at variable rates, making interest income vulnerable to potential rate cuts.
Refinancing risk associated with the $125.0 million of 3.50% notes maturing in November 2026, which may need to be replaced with higher-cost debt.
Dependence on the health of the lower middle-market segment, which is typically more vulnerable to economic downturns than larger enterprises.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sharp increase in non-accruals exceeding 3.0% of the portfolio at fair value.
A reduction in the quarterly base dividend below $0.43 per share.
A severe contraction in net investment margins driven by unfavorable refinancing terms or aggressive interest rate cuts.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.