Amazon.com, Inc.

AMZNNASDAQ
SectorConsumer Discretionary
IndustryBroadline Retail
Beta (adjusted)1.31
Intrinsic Value $297.82median of 6 methods · middle span $174-$458computed 26 Aug 2026 · filings through 30 Jun 2026
Market Price $256.78Price as of 11 Sep 2026
UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price
−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%
Data confidenceLow
Market Cap $2.8T
Enterprise Value $2.8T
Shares Outstanding 10.9B diluted
Moat Rating Narrow
Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026
All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

Amazon's operating momentum strengthened materially through the second quarter of 2026: consolidated sales grew 20%, operating income grew 43%, AWS growth accelerated to 37%, and advertising grew 26%. AWS also produced a 39.4% quarterly operating margin. These trends support a positive stance, but the investment case carries elevated execution risk because trailing-twelve-month free cash flow fell to a $7.6 billion outflow as AI infrastructure spending accelerated. Reported net income is additionally distorted by large non-operating gains on Amazon's Anthropic investment.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets60 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$230.00
Mean target$327.00
High · most bullish analyst$405.00
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 29 Aug 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$220.0015%

AWS growth falls below 20%, AI capacity monetization lags infrastructure deployment, and free cash flow deteriorates further. A result below Amazon's $22.5 billion Q3 operating-income guidance floor would indicate that spending and operating pressures are overwhelming current revenue momentum.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$327.0056%
Matches the consensus mean

Amazon delivers within its Q3 2026 guidance of $197.0-$202.0 billion in sales and $22.5-$26.5 billion in operating income, while AWS moderates from Q2's exceptional growth but remains above 25%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$400.0029%

AWS sustains growth above 30% as AI, Trainium, Graviton, and Bedrock demand converts committed capacity into revenue; advertising remains above 20%; and operating leverage offsets infrastructure spending. The Q2 release supports this upside pathway through 37% AWS growth, 26% advertising growth, and AI and chip businesses each exceeding a $25 billion annual revenue run rate.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • AWS accelerated to 37% year-over-year growth in Q2 2026 and generated $16.6 billion of segment operating income.
  • Advertising services grew 26% year over year in Q2 2026, providing another fast-growing, asset-light earnings engine.
  • Consolidated Q2 operating income increased 43% to $27.5 billion while trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow increased 33% to $161.4 billion.
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Key Investment Risks
  • Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow declined to a $7.6 billion outflow as net property and equipment purchases increased sharply, primarily reflecting AI investment.
  • Q2 net income included $53.4 billion of non-operating pre-tax income primarily associated with Anthropic, making headline earnings a poor measure of recurring operating performance.
  • Amazon identifies material uncertainty from tariffs, trade policy, energy prices, memory-chip supply, macroeconomic conditions, regulation, security incidents, and the timing and returns of investments in new opportunities.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sources: 2
  1. Amazon.com Announces Second Quarter Results as of 29 Aug 2026
  2. Amazon.com Announces Fourth Quarter Results as of 29 Aug 2026

Quality Pillars Members

Sector-relative quality grades; rings mark the grade boundaries.

Predictability: Sector: Consumer Discretionary · 3 sub-metricsPredictabilityProfitability: Sector: Consumer Discretionary · 1 sub-metricProfitabilityGrowth: Sector: Consumer Discretionary · 2 sub-metricsGrowthFin Strength: Sector: Consumer Discretionary · 2 sub-metricsFin StrengthValuation: Sector: Consumer Discretionary · 1 sub-metricValuationDividend
  • PredictabilityMedium66th sector rank
  • ProfitabilityMedium40th sector rank
  • GrowthHigh92nd sector rank
  • Fin StrengthHigh76th sector rank
  • ValuationMedium45th sector rank
  • DividendN/Aranks payers only

A missing spoke means insufficient data, never a zero. The Dividend axis ranks sector payers only; non-payers show a gap.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.
AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.