Airbnb, Inc. Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryHotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Beta (adjusted)1.08 Intrinsic Value $169.83median of 6 methods · middle span $136-$511computed 26 Aug 2026 · filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $170.19Price as of 11 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidenceLow Market Cap $101.9B Enterprise Value $97.6B Shares Outstanding 596M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Airbnb entered the second half of 2026 with accelerating bookings, 17% second-quarter revenue growth, and expanding Adjusted EBITDA, while management raised its full-year revenue-growth and margin outlook. Product improvements, AI-enabled customer support, Experiences, Services, and hotel inventory offer additional growth avenues. A neutral recommendation is appropriate because these newer initiatives remain early, investment timing is expected to pressure the third-quarter margin comparison. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$115.00 Mean target$174.73 High · most bullish analyst$215.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 29 Aug 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $115.0018% Booking growth falls below the second quarter's 10% rate, newer offerings fail to offset softer core demand, and investment spending produces a larger or more persistent margin drag than management currently expects. Missing the Q3 revenue guidance floor or the full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin floor would provide objective evidence for this case. Base CaseCentral scenario $174.7358% Matches the consensus meanAirbnb delivers approximately the raised outlook: at least mid-teens full-year revenue growth and at least a 35.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin. Core-market demand remains resilient while newer offerings contribute incrementally rather than becoming near-term profit drivers. Bull CaseUpside scenario $215.0024% Product iteration and AI-enabled efficiency sustain or improve the second quarter's 10% Nights and Seats Booked growth, while Services, Experiences, and hotel inventory increase engagement. Revenue remains at or above the raised outlook and operating leverage lifts the full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin beyond the company's 35.5% floor. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersSector-relative quality grades; rings mark the grade boundaries.
A missing spoke means insufficient data, never a zero. The Dividend axis ranks sector payers only; non-payers show a gap. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |